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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.